Monday, July 14, 2008

INFLATION APPROX 12...WHO IS AT FAULT?

Inflation means rise in value of money.With inflation taking its toll in India, other nations are also not safe. Prime cause of high inflation is rise in oil price. High Inflation has been always associated with rise in oil prices courtesy OPEC (Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries). Last time high inflation in whole world was in 1973 (oil price shock). That time prices of oil quadrupled to 12$ per barrel. India being a third world country at that time didn't suffer that much courtesy poor population. Hardly anyone in India was able to afford a car back then. Indian government at that time put all the increase in price on the consumers. Within an hour prices in India were 4 times without much objection from the consumers. Even the developed countries like US, USSR, Britain etc decided to throw all the increase on the consumers of their countries. Soon the demand of oil fell like a rickety house. Low Demand caused OPEC to reduce the price and soon the price was back to normal. But countries took a long time deciding their way to curb the oil price rise leaving economy at bad shape. We should take a lesson from this. Now the time has changed, India along with China is largest oil consumer, now rise in price of oil very well effect us. India has increased the oil prices by 4 to 5 rupees which is nothing compared to increase in global oil prices. Oil was 75$ per barrel in July 2007 and is now close to 150$ per barrel. India has subsidized major part of increase for its consumers resulting in something which is not desirable. People have not decreased their oil consumption resulting in no less demand of oil from India. China has done almost the same. Developed countries learning the lesson from past have put all the increase on its consumers causing decrease in demand of oil in their country. OPEC which now exports major proportion of its oil to the Asian giants namely India and China has no reason for decreasing prices as demand from these countries is same as before. Therefore Indian government rather than subsidizing the oil price increase is subsidizing OPEC. Results of which are quite evident, inflation is ever increasing, growth rate has fallen, stock markets have crashed and GDP is below 1 trillion $ now. Economy is going into recession. Indian Government has to take some quality steps to ensure that it doesn't finish its foreign reserves and gradually fall into recession. First step has to be fall in oil price from 150$ per barrel. Indian Government has to throw increase in oil prices on its consumers without worrying about their "kursi". People are bound to get furious but we have to focus on long term effects. If current situation prevails for even 6 months more, the economy will receive a major setback and all the good work done in previous years will be in vain.
Necessary and correct solution is need of the hour.

2 comments:

Abhishek Rao said...

It certainly is....I did hear a lot of roar about the price rise in public but none took measures to cut down their demands.the time has come for the action as government is goig to fall over the Nuc deal,so idea suggested by you can be enforced now!!
see wat happens now

Puneet Sharma said...

you r right but then how long we will keep on blaiming the goverment for the price rise and using the petrol as levishly as possible.its correct that why the weight of subsidy to fall on those non tax payers who don't use it at all.. infact it is worth to note that US is also behind that rising inflation all across the world..they are doing it delibrately so that their economy which was on recession till last year pulls all the economies of the world down together..